The worsening conflict in Syria
About 2 weeks ago Putin got serious in Syria with the beginning of direct and large-scale military intervention.
Another huge step closer to the abyss.
So let’s just have a look at the main players in this conflict and their real goals and motivations.
Putin wants to prop up Assad to keep a strong foothold in the middle east and harbor facilities in the Mediterranean.
They are also backers of Iran and their very recent deployment of sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles is a game changer, because it will cost the Israelis their airspace superiority over Syria, which was a big factor in interrupting Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran through Syria into Lebanon.
Furthermore the creation of more refugees through russian bombing campaigns puts more pressure on western Europe.! Overnight Putin rose from pariah to player at the chessboard of international politics. He is right about one thing :the west has become weak from his contorted and megalomania perspective !
He actually likes the IS because they gave him a chance to become a player and once they are gone, everybody will turn on him because he is one of the biggest obstacles to relative peace in the area.
So don`t expect any real help from him to fight the IS, vice versa. They are basically helping his own cause.by giving him the excuse to interfere militarily,even so it is mainly to his own advantage.
His real goal is straight forward :to keep a strangle hold on power,no matter what. The butcher of Damascus will not go voluntarily and now with russian backing looks firmly entrenched.After Putin, he ist he second largest problem in that area.
Assad opposition parties :
Their goal is to rid Syria of a blood thirsty tyrant, Assad and the Pest of IS. Again, with Putin’s large-scale military engagement, their fortunes have turned for the worse.
definitely got his own agenda : doesn`t like Assad, but neither the Kurds.Did favour the IS, but after a deal with Obama got a green light to bomb the PKK and now after the downing of a russian fighter jet the russians are bombing the rest of the Kurds for him.Smart move ! basically wants to regain Atta Turks bygone glory. He really is more part of the problem than the solution.
The Kurds :
They are probably a large part of any longterm solution to the problem,
because they are ‘local’ troops and not foreigners.Apart from that they have enough people and economic muscle (oil and gas ) to form their own stable country in the long run and with that stabilize a large area.
They are also tolerant enough to accommodate other ethnic groups.So they should get a lot of support from anybody who really wants to put an end to this quagmire.
Iranian militias and Hezbollah :
They are on Assad side because he guarantees Hezbollah their supply line and they don`t like Sunnis who make up the IS.However, even so they are fighting the IS , in the long run they are more of a problem than part of the
The IS :
This is the third largest problem. nr 1 : Putin, nr 2 :Assad,nr 3 :the IS. !!!!
Trouble is , they obviously have support from other countries like Saudi Arabia which is Sunny and doesn`t get on with Iran to well.Their recent and intended attacks on the West make their demise a top priority. Cutting off their revenue flow any which way possible is certainly a very important step in the right direction as well as the bombing campaign.
However, without ground troops there will be no permanent success.And as we have seen,Putin, Assad and Erdoban have their own agenda and the removal of the IS is not necessarily in their interest. So don`t expect any real help from there, it`s a lot of smoke and mirrors !!!
Enter the Western Coalition :
They are united in their goal to get rid of the IS, however as we have seen they will really have to navigate around Putin, Assad and to some extend Erduan to achieve this.So the best bet right now is a massive support for the Kurds (peschmergers ),recruiting of young soldiers from the refugee camps (maybe 500 000 should do the job), while hitting supply lines of the IS as well as freezing assets, accounts etc .If need be, Erduan will have to be side lined one way or another to facilitate this and to have a base camp for military ground forces. No western ground forces should be in Syria,they will be viewed as occupying armies.(just look at Afghanistan etc)
The crunch time will come, when those peschmerger armies will eventually face off with Assad army and russian ground troops.If the Kurds have convincingly military strength,only then will Putin and his lackey, Assad, be willing to negotiate.
Negotiating with them now from a position of weakness is counter productive, it will only prolong the war and the suffering.
One final solution for Syria could be,the russians keep all the ports, the north will go to the Kurds and the rest will be given to the respective ethnic groups like sunnies etc.There is certainly no place for Assad above the ground, since he is the root cause of all this.
We basically have 3 mayor front lines in Syria right now :
nr 1 Putin and Assad fighting everybody who opposes Assad`s regime and grip on power, and the IS are not high on their list,vice versa.
nr 2 The Western coalition is fighting the IS while cautiously backing some of Assad opponents, including the Kurds.
nr3 Putin, Assad and Erdoban fighting the Kurds.
As you can see, there are already overlapping interests.
If Putin or Assad were to be taken out of he equation, it would be a game changer.Since this is not likely to happen,the next best bet is to achieve a position of strength from which to negotiate. Since the West doesn`t want to confront Putin militarily, the only option is to put together a `local` army that can do this job with a little help.Enter the Peschmerger
they have proven themselves already.(some body like the Iraqis have proven over and over again that they can`t fight their way out of a wet paper bag and all the equipment you give them you might as well hand straight to the IS.)
And we don`t have much time either.
The very recent deployment of russian S 400 anti aircraft missiles basically gives Hezbollah a green light to have a go at Israel with long-range missiles.And that would probably mean WWW III
So its time to stop rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and get some decisive action happening.And making deals with and appeasing and accommodating bullies like Assad and Putin is definitely the wrong way to go !!!
I hope this will get some people thinking
have a nice day